Quantifying Humankind’s Survival Probability, 2025: An Updated Conscious Enterprises Network Assessment
Quantifying Humankind’s Survival Probability, 2025: An Updated Conscious Enterprises Network Assessment by D. Conterno (2025) Executive Summary The global outlook has darkened markedly since Conscious Enterprises Network (CEN)’s June 2024 study. After recalibrating each hazard vector and mitigation lever, CEN now assigns the period 2025 to 2045 a mid‑range survival probability of 40 percent (before the addendum and now 37% ) . The seven‑point erosion observed in 2024 has deepened by a further ten percentage points, driven chiefly by (1) the explicit quantification of engineered biological threats, (2) intensified great‑power brinkmanship exacerbated by the new United States administration’s disruptive trade, territorial, and human‑rights posture, and (3) a continued acceleration of climate‑system momentum that overwhelms incremental mitigation gains. Nevertheless, transformative potential remains. Breakthroughs in beneficial artificial intelligence and unprecedented commitments to ...