Quantifying Humankind’s Survival Probability by D. Conterno
Quantifying Humankind’s Survival Probability by D. Conterno March 2026 Wartime Update Document status: CEN internal analytic assessment – Wartime Emergency Revision. Probability values are CEN working estimates; underlying factual statements are sourced where possible. Assessment current as of 15 March 2026. Executive Summary This March 2026 wartime update constitutes an emergency revision of the Conscious Enterprises Network (CEN)’s 20-year survival assessment. On 28 February 2026, the United States and Israel launched joint strikes against Iran (Operation Epic Fury), killing Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and initiating the most significant interstate military conflict since the 2003 invasion of Iraq. The conflict has since expanded into a multi-theatre regional war encompassing Iran, Lebanon, and the wider Gulf, with the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz creating the largest oil supply disruption in recorded history. After recalibrating the baseline hazard ledg...