Quantifying, in June 2024,Humankind Survival Probability in the Context of AI


Quantifying, in June 2024,Humankind Survival Probability in the Context of AI, by D. Conterno (2024)



Quantifying the probability of humankind's survival over the next 20 years, using Artificial Intelligence (AI), requires an assessment of various factors, including geopolitical risks, technological advancements, environmental challenges, and societal dynamics. Incorporating the advent of AI into this equation adds another layer of complexity, as AI can be both a significant risk and a powerful tool for mitigation.

The following analysis was created using a standard AI engine and working on specific aspects of the challenges we are facing in June 2024.


Quantifying Geopolitical Risks

Likelihood of Major Conflicts: Historical data and current trends suggest a low-to-moderate probability of large-scale wars, given the deterrent effect of nuclear weapons and international diplomatic efforts.

    • Estimated risk of a major conflict: 15-25%.
Nuclear Proliferation: The risk of nuclear proliferation and potential use remains, although efforts at disarmament and non-proliferation treaties are in place.

    • Estimated risk of nuclear use: 5-10%.


Technological Advancements, Including AI

Beneficial AI Applications: AI can significantly contribute to solving global challenges, such as climate change, healthcare, and resource management.

    • Positive impact on survival probability: +15-20%.
Risks of AI Misuse: The development of autonomous weapons, AI-driven cyber warfare, and potential AI-related job displacement pose significant risks.

    • Estimated risk of AI misuse: 10-20%.
AI Governance and Ethical Use: Strong governance frameworks and ethical guidelines can mitigate AI risks.

    • Mitigating impact: -5-10%.


Environmental Challenges

Climate Change: The effects of climate change are becoming increasingly severe, with potential for widespread disruption.

    • Estimated risk from climate change: 20-30%.
Mitigation Efforts: Global initiatives like the Paris Agreement aim to reduce carbon emissions and promote sustainability.

    • Mitigating impact: -10-15%.


Societal Dynamics

Social Cohesion and Resilience: Strong social fabrics and resilient communities can better withstand crises.

    • Positive impact: +10-15%.

Inequality and Polarisation: Increasing inequality and political polarisation can exacerbate other risks.

    • Estimated risk: 10-15%.


Combined Risk and Mitigation Assessment 

To quantify the overall survival probability, we need to aggregate these risk factors and their mitigating impacts. This can be approached through a weighted average of the individual risks and benefits:

Baseline Risk (Geopolitical and Environmental):

    • Major conflict: 20% (average)
    • Nuclear use: 7.5% (average)
    • Climate change: 25% (average)
    • Combined baseline risk: 52.5%
Technological and Societal Mitigations:


    • Positive AI impact: +17.5% (average)
    • AI misuse risk: -15% (average)
    • AI governance impact: +7.5% (average)
    • Social cohesion: +12.5% (average)
    • Inequality risk: -12.5% (average)
    • Combined mitigations: +10% net positive impact


Final Probability Estimate 

Starting with a base survival probability of 100%, we subtract the combined baseline risk and add the combined mitigations:

  • Initial probability: 100%
  • Subtract baseline risk: -52.5%
  • Add net mitigations: +10%
  • Final estimated survival probability: 57.5%


Improving the Survival Probability 

Indeed, a survival probability of 57.5% over the next 20 years highlights significant risks that humankind faces. However, there are concrete steps that can be taken to improve this outlook. By focusing on strategic actions across various domains, we can enhance resilience and mitigate risks. Here are some key areas where concerted efforts can make a substantial difference:

Strengthening Global Governance and Diplomacy

    • Enhance International Cooperation
      • Promote Multilateralism: Strengthen international institutions like the United Nations, and promote multilateral agreements to address global issues such as climate change, disarmament, weapon of mass destruction research and development, and trade.
      • Conflict Resolution: Invest in diplomatic efforts to resolve ongoing conflicts and prevent new ones, prioritising dialogue and negotiation over military interventions.
    • Reinforce Non-Proliferation Efforts
      • Nuclear Disarmament: Work towards reducing the number of nuclear weapons through treaties and international pressure.
      • Prevent Proliferation: Strengthen international monitoring and enforcement mechanisms to prevent the spread of nuclear and other weapons of mass destruction.
Advancing Ethical and Beneficial Use of Technology

    • Develop and Enforce AI Ethics and Governance
      • Establish Global Standards: Create and enforce global standards for AI development and deployment, ensuring they align with ethical principles and human rights.
      • Promote Transparency: Encourage transparency in AI systems to build trust and allow for better oversight.
    • Foster Technological Innovations for Good
      • Climate Solutions: Invest in AI and other technologies to develop solutions for climate change, such as renewable energy, carbon capture, and smart agriculture.
      • Healthcare Advancements: Leverage AI for breakthroughs in medical research, disease prevention, and public health management.
Addressing Climate Change and Environmental Degradation

    • Implement Aggressive Climate Policies
      • Reduce Emissions: Enforce stringent policies to cut greenhouse gas emissions, such as carbon pricing, renewable energy mandates, and energy efficiency standards.
      • Promote Sustainability: Support sustainable practices in agriculture, industry, and urban development to reduce environmental impact.
    • Enhance Adaptation and Resilience
      • Infrastructure Investments: Build resilient infrastructure to withstand extreme weather events and other climate impacts.
      • Biodiversity Conservation: Protect and restore natural ecosystems to maintain biodiversity and ecological balance.

Promoting Social Cohesion and Equity

    • Reduce Inequality
      • Economic Policies: Implement policies to reduce income and wealth disparities, such as progressive taxation, social safety nets, and equitable access to education and healthcare.
      • Inclusive Growth: Foster inclusive economic growth that benefits all segments of society, including marginalised and vulnerable populations.
    • Strengthen Social Fabric
      • Community Building: Promote community engagement and social solidarity through initiatives that encourage civic participation and mutual support.
      • Combat Polarisation: Address political polarisation by promoting dialogue, understanding, and compromise across different societal groups.
Enhancing Global Health Security

    • Strengthen Healthcare Systems
      • Universal Health Coverage: Ensure that all individuals have access to essential healthcare services, including preventive care and emergency response.
      • Global Health Initiatives: Support international efforts to combat infectious diseases, improve maternal and child health, and address non-communicable diseases.
    • Improve Pandemic Preparedness
      • Early Warning Systems: Develop robust early warning systems for emerging infectious diseases.
      • Rapid Response Mechanisms: Establish rapid response mechanisms to contain outbreaks and prevent pandemics.


Conclusion 

Improving the survival probability of humankind over the next 20 years requires a holistic and multi-faceted approach. By strengthening global governance, promoting ethical and beneficial use of technology, addressing climate change, fostering social cohesion, and enhancing global health security, we can significantly enhance our resilience and ability to navigate future challenges.

While the estimated survival probability of 57.5% reflects considerable risks, proactive and sustained efforts in these areas can substantially increase our chances of a prosperous and secure future for all.

There is no doubt that together, we can build a brighter and more resilient future. Who are among us the people willing to commit to collaboration, innovation, and ethical responsibility to navigate the next two decades successfully?


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