FROM REPUBLIC TO “EMPIRE”: A STAR WARS’ PALPATINE-INSPIRED WORST-CASE MODEL FOR THE UNITED STATES IN 2026–2028 by D. Conterno (2026)

Purpose and method (what this is and what it is not)

This article is a red-team scenario exercise: a structured “worst-case” pathway that asks, “If democratic backsliding through executive aggrandisement were to accelerate, what might it look like, and what early warning indicators would we watch?” This is a standard analytic technique used to challenge complacency and reduce groupthink; the UK Ministry of Defence’s Red Teaming Handbook describes red teaming as a way to recognise and correct biased or constrained thinking before it hardens into faulty judgement.

It is not an assertion that the U.S. government is running a Star Wars like Palpatine plan. It is a stress test of institutions. In democratic-backsliding research, Nancy Bermeo describes a shift away from overt coups towards “executive aggrandisement” and more subtle institutional erosion, which is exactly the kind of pathway a Palpatine analogy is meant to illuminate.

Part I. The Palpatine template (what the Star Wars universe is actually modelling)

In the Star Wars canon, Palpatine’s core move is not “force” first; it is legitimacy engineering: manufacture or exploit a crisis, acquire emergency authorities, reframe opposition as traitors, rewire the administrative and coercive apparatus for loyalty, then convert temporary powers into permanent structure.

Star Wars makes this explicit. StarWars.com’s Jedi Temple entry describes Palpatine as “the puppeteer behind both sides of a war engineered to weaken the Jedi and transform the Republic into a massive industrial and military war machine under his control.” StarWars.com’s Galactic Empire entry similarly frames the endgame: Palpatine claims an attempted coup by “Jedi traitors”, issues Order 66, reorganises the Republic into the Empire, promising “peace and security”. The Galactic Senate and Palpatine databank entries also emphasise the “thunderous applause” of formal institutions as the mechanism of collapse, not only the violence that follows.

If we abstract this into a sequence (the “Palpatine ladder”), we get seven rungs:

1. Trigger event: a crisis that makes “normal governance” feel insufficient.
2. Emergency authority: a legal pathway that expands executive discretion.
3. Coercive consolidation: policing/military tools become central to domestic order.
4. Loyalty refit: administrative state shifts from neutral competence to obedience.
5. Opposition criminalisation: dissent is reframed as sedition/treason/terror.
6. Narrative capture: a propaganda environment that fractures shared reality.
7. Constitutional or quasi-constitutional entrenchment: rules change, or norms collapse, so reversal becomes near-impossible.

Part II. The U.S. “starting conditions” in January 2026 (facts that make a worst-case pathway conceivable)

A red-team model must start from real conditions, not fantasy.

1. A live domestic flashpoint with federal enforcement escalation and judicial confrontation

Multiple credible outlets report that Minneapolis–St Paul has become a major national flashpoint tied to a large federal immigration enforcement surge (“Operation Metro Surge”), with protests, fatalities during encounters with federal officers, and extraordinary judicial intervention. Reuters reports that a federal judge ordered Acting ICE Director Todd Lyons to appear and warned of contempt over alleged failures to comply with court orders. PBS reported ICE describing the operation as the “largest immigration operation ever” with over 2,000 federal agents sent to the Minneapolis area. AP reporting describes intense controversy around the killing of protester Alex Pretti, including disputes about official claims versus video evidence and political pressure for investigations and de-escalation.

These facts do not prove intent. They do establish that a combustible “crisis theatre” exists, with the key ingredients Palpatine requires: fear, anger, coercive presence, and institutional conflict.

2. A measurable rise in threats and political violence ambience

The U.S. Capitol Police reported 14,938 threat assessment cases in 2025, continuing a multi-year rise; this is an official statistic, not media inference. Reuters and AP also reported a physical attack on Rep. Ilhan Omar at a Minneapolis town hall (sprayed with an unknown substance), occurring amid high tensions over immigration enforcement.

3. Elite rhetoric that normalises “traitor” frames and death-penalty language

Reuters reported a November 2025 Truth Social post by President Trump describing Democratic lawmakers as “seditious” and calling their behaviour “punishable by DEATH!”, alongside “LOCK THEM UP???”. In a worst-case model, this matters because Palpatine’s ladder requires the moral recoding of opposition from “rivals” into “enemies of the state”.

4. Concrete moves that can increase executive leverage over the administrative “control plane”

The White House published an executive action restoring a Schedule Policy/Career-style category (“Restoring Accountability to Policy-Influencing Positions within the Federal Workforce”), explicitly arguing that policy-influencing personnel must be accountable to the President. The Federal Register listing confirms publication of this executive order. Regulations.gov contains the Office of Personnel Management documentation for the proposed rulemaking.

You can agree or disagree with this policy, but analytically it is relevant: it is a mechanism that can reshape loyalty, compliance, and internal resistance capacity, which is rung (4) on the Palpatine ladder.

5. A visible “term limits stress test” entering formal politics

A House joint resolution proposing a constitutional amendment allowing election up to three times (H.J.Res.29, introduced January 23, 2025) exists as a legislative artefact on Congress.gov, with the text published via Congress/GPO. This does not mean it will pass; Article V hurdles are enormous. It does mean “imperial tenure talk” has a formal pathway being trial-ballooned, which is rung (7) territory.

6. The legal emergency toolkit exists, and is being discussed in relation to Minneapolis

The National Emergencies Act provides a framework for presidential declarations that activate statutory authorities, with congressional oversight mechanisms described by CRS. The Insurrection Act is a distinct domestic deployment authority; the Brennan Center summarises that it authorises domestic use of military forces in certain situations and that it is broad, vague, and rarely used. AP reported that Vice President Vance said the Insurrection Act was not needed “right now” in Minneapolis, which implicitly confirms it is in the live policy discourse around this flashpoint.

Part III. The worst-case scenario (2026–2028): “Order 66” without clones, “Empire” without a coup

What follows is hypothetical. It is not a claim about what will happen. It is a model of what could happen if the above conditions interact in the most corrosive way.

Phase 1 (Q1–Q2 2026): The “Naboo blockade” moment (a crisis that restructures legitimacy)

Trigger: A sequence of high-salience incidents in Minneapolis escalates: more deaths, more viral footage, retaliatory violence by fringe actors, and a widening cycle of protests and counter-protests. The operational facts that such an escalation could build upon are already visible: the large federal enforcement footprint and the ongoing legal confrontation over detentions and compliance with court orders.

Palpatine analogy: The Separatist crisis is used to create the felt need for extraordinary measures. In Star Wars, the Senate’s power “gradually eroded” after it voted emergency powers to Palpatine during the Clone Wars (StarWars.com episode guide).

U.S. mechanism (hypothetical but legally grounded): The administration reframes Minneapolis not as a policing controversy but as a “national domestic security emergency”. This can be pursued through two different legal narratives:

Route A: “Emergency governance” logic under the National Emergencies Act (declaration plus activation of specified statutory authorities). CRS describes how the NEA requires formal declaration and specification of authorities.

Route B: “Insurrection / domestic violence” logic under the Insurrection Act, or at least sustained threats to use it, which can shift bargaining power even without formal invocation. The Brennan Center notes the Act’s function and breadth. Time and the Washington Post have reported on the controversy of such threats in the Trump discourse environment (separate from whether it is invoked in Minneapolis).

Output: The crisis becomes a mandate for “restoring order”, and any resistance can be framed as aiding chaos.

Key indicator to watch: formal or repeated presidential references to Insurrection Act deployment thresholds, especially if paired with claims that local authorities are “unable or unwilling” to enforce law (a classic pretext structure in backsliding cases).

Phase 2 (Q2–Q3 2026): “The Jedi are traitors” (opposition becomes criminal category)

Trigger: violent incidents occur at political events (including attacks on lawmakers) and are interpreted through tribal frames. The existence of rising threat and attack dynamics is already evidenced by USCP threat data and the Omar incident.

Palpatine analogy: Palpatine claims an attempted coup by Jedi “traitors” and uses that to legitimise their eradication and the Republic’s reorganisation.

U.S. mechanism (worst case): The administration (and aligned media ecosystem) blends three labels into one prosecutorial atmosphere: “terrorist”, “seditious”, “traitor”. That is not science fiction; we already have evidence that senior rhetoric is willing to float “seditious … punishable by death” language at opponents.

Then, selectively, federal prosecution intensity increases. Not necessarily mass arrests; the backsliding pattern often uses exemplary punishment: a small number of prosecutions that create a chilling effect for many. Bermeo’s framework points to harassment and strategic manipulation as modern tools of backsliding, not only brute force.

Legal “hooks” that could be overused in a worst case include broadly framed internal security statutes (for example, seditious conspiracy, 18 U.S.C. §2384, which provides penalties for conspiracies to oppose by force the authority of the U.S. government or hinder execution of law). The risk in a worst-case model is not the statute’s existence; it is politicised or uneven application.

Key indicator to watch: a pattern of prosecutions where the same underlying conduct is treated differently depending on political alignment, paired with executive rhetoric that pre-judges guilt.

Phase 3 (Q3–Q4 2026): “Schedule F as Order 66” (loyalty refit of the state)

Palpatine does not win only by targeting opponents; he rewires the apparatus. In the canon, specialised loyal forces (and later “purge” units) are used to hunt residual threats. StarWars.com’s “Purge Troopers” entry explicitly frames them as handpicked for aptitude and loyalty to assist in hunting down remaining Jedi.

U.S. mechanism (grounded in real policy levers, extrapolated in application): The Schedule Policy/Career architecture becomes an administrative equivalent of “Order 66” not by physically eliminating a class of people, but by enabling rapid replacement of key policy-influencing officials across agencies with personnel aligned to presidential directives. The White House framing explicitly centres presidential accountability and policy alignment. OPM memos and rulemaking documents show how agencies are guided to implement the new designation.

Worst case: this is deployed at scale in enforcement-relevant agencies (justice, homeland security, regulatory bodies), reducing “internal friction” that normally slows escalatory impulses. This is not a claim that it is happening now at that scale; it is the scenario branch that matters because it removes a key check.

Key indicator to watch: rapid, repeated turnover in senior operational roles during domestic crises, with replacements publicly framed as “loyal”, “tough”, or “not obstructing”.

Phase 4 (2027): “Holonet fracture” (information space becomes ungovernable)

In Star Wars, information control is implicit in the Empire’s ability to shape reality across systems. In the U.S., the more plausible worst-case path is not total control, but total fracture: two incompatible realities, each claiming the other is disinformation.

Disinformation is not hypothetical. RAND describes a “firehose of falsehood” propaganda model characterised by high volume, rapid, continuous messaging, and low commitment to consistency, noting that refutations often fail to correct beliefs. NATO defines disinformation as deliberately spread false or inaccurate information intended to manipulate opinions and actions. The U.S. Senate Intelligence Committee has documented foreign influence operations using social media to sow discord and erode confidence.

Worst case: a cycle forms:

• Each new incident is instantly “weaponised” by influence networks.
• Courts, media, and elections lose common legitimacy.
• Because nobody trusts neutral arbiters, coercive enforcement becomes the default “resolver” of disputes.

Key indicator to watch: accelerating violence accompanied by accelerating disbelief in any shared adjudicator (courts, election bodies, neutral civil service, official statistics), which turns politics into a security problem.

Phase 5 (2027–2028): “The Senate applauds” (constitutional entrenchment, or “Emperor by norm collapse”)

In Star Wars, the Empire is declared, and institutions applaud. In the U.S., the worst-case analogue is a transition from competitive democracy to a dominant-party system, achieved not necessarily by abolishing elections, but by making opposition victory functionally impossible.

There are two variants:

Variant A: Formal rule change attempt (high difficulty, but high signalling value)

H.J.Res.29 proposes allowing a president to be elected up to three times. Again, it is unlikely to succeed quickly. But in a worst case, the value is in normalising the idea that constitutional constraints are “optional if the crisis is big enough”.

Indicator: repeated elite messaging that term limits are an obstacle to “finishing the job”, tied to claims of existential internal threat.

Variant B: De facto entrenchment without amendment (more plausible in backsliding literature)

Without changing the Constitution, entrenchment can occur through:

• administrative capture (Phase 3),
• selective prosecution (Phase 2),
• intimidation and threat environment (Phase 1 and USCP trend),
• election administration conflict and persistent delegitimisation narratives.

Here it is important to note a counterweight: Freedom House still rates the U.S. “Free” (84/100 in 2025). That is evidence against “already an Empire”. But a red-team model is about how deterioration could accelerate if multiple stressors converge.

Part IV. Why Minneapolis matters in this model

In this model, it matters for structural reasons:

1. It provides a crisis arena where federal enforcement, public protest, and judicial resistance collide in real time, with international visibility via major media coverage.
2. It creates a narrative fork: either the state demonstrates restraint and compliance, or it escalates and frames opposition as subversive.
3. It is already connected to the Insurrection Act discourse environment (at least at the level of senior discussion about whether it is needed).

In Palpatine terms: Minneapolis can function as “the crisis that justifies the next rung”, not because it is uniquely destined, but because it already contains the elements that can be scaled.

Part V. Early warnings and falsifiers (how you keep this from becoming conspiracy theatre)

A serious worst-case model must include  early warnings and falsifiers (what would prove the model wrong or reduce its probability).

Early warnings (if you see several together, risk increases)

1. Escalation from enforcement surge to military framing: explicit movement towards invoking domestic military deployment authorities, or repeated threats of doing so to secure compliance.
2. Systematic non-compliance with courts (not isolated disputes), especially if contempt threats become normalised.
3. Expansion of “traitor/sedition” rhetoric into administrative action: firings, de-credentialing, prosecutions justified primarily by loyalty narratives rather than conduct.
4. Accelerating threat environment: continued sharp rises in threats against officials and political events, which increases the plausibility of emergency governance.
5. Institutional capture of the control plane: large-scale deployment of Schedule Policy/Career combined with rapid leadership churn in enforcement and oversight bodies.
6. A full epistemic split: mass refusal to accept any election outcome, any court ruling, or any official statistic, with foreign or domestic disinformation accelerants.

Falsifiers (evidence that pushes the model down)

1. Transparent accountability and de-escalation in Minneapolis, paired with demonstrable compliance with court orders and stable judicial authority.
2. Consistent reduction in lethalised rhetoric by senior leaders, especially retraction of “death/traitor” framings.
3. Midterm and local elections that remain clearly competitive, credibly administered, and widely accepted (not “liked”, but accepted as legitimate).
4. Civil service reforms bounded tightly to performance and misconduct, not used as a loyalty sorting mechanism, and subject to transparent review.

Part VI. The “non-politically correct” conclusion (stated with discipline)

Palpatine is a parable about how “civil war” conditions, emergency powers, and narrative warfare can convert a republic into an empire without a single dramatic coup. Star Wars makes that structural warning explicit in its own canon language about engineered war, emergency authority, and institutional applause.

What makes the U.S. case analytically alarming in January 2026 is not proof of a master plan. It is the simultaneous presence of: 

1. A live crisis theatre (Minneapolis) with heavy federal enforcement and institutional conflict.
2. A sharply rising threat climate.
3. Elite rhetoric flirting with sedition/death frames.
4. Administrative mechanisms that can increase executive leverage over the state’s “control plane”.
5. Disinformation-saturated information environment in which reality arbitration is collapsing.

That is precisely the kind of condition set in which worst-case trajectories become thinkable. The ethical point is not to “believe” the worst case. It is to name it, watch the indicators, and strengthen the falsifiers.

References

Star Wars sources (canon framing)
StarWars.com. (n.d.). Galactic Empire. https://www.starwars.com/databank/galactic-empire
StarWars.com. (n.d.). Jedi Temple. https://www.starwars.com/databank/jedi-temple
StarWars.com. (n.d.). Galactic Senate. https://www.starwars.com/databank/galactic-senate
StarWars.com. (n.d.). Emperor Palpatine (Darth Sidious). https://www.starwars.com/databank/emperor-palpatine-darth-sidious
StarWars.com. (n.d.). Purge Troopers. https://www.starwars.com/databank/purge-troopers
StarWars.com. (n.d.). Crisis at the Heart episode guide (The Clone Wars). https://www.starwars.com/series/clone-wars/crisis-at-the-heart-episode-guide

U.S. current-event anchors (January 2026)
Reuters. (2026-01-27). US judge threatens ICE chief with contempt, orders court appearance. https://www.reuters.com/legal/government/us-judge-threatens-ice-chief-with-contempt-orders-court-appearance-2026-01-27/
The Washington Post. (2026-01-27). U.S. judge orders ICE chief to appear in court, threatens contempt ruling. https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2026/01/27/ice-federal-judge-contempt/
PBS NewsHour. (2026-01-06). 2,000 federal agents sent to Minneapolis area to carry out “largest immigration operation ever,” ICE says. https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/2000-federal-agents-sent-to-minneapolis-area-to-carry-out-largest-immigration-operation-ever-ice-says
Associated Press. (2026-01-28). Man arrested after spraying unknown substance on Rep. Ilhan Omar at Minneapolis town hall. https://apnews.com/article/7f6ad0b9ece2ae8804b2efe5badd2991
Reuters. (2026-01-28). Man sprays U.S. lawmaker Ilhan Omar with liquid, disrupting Minnesota event. https://www.reuters.com/world/us/man-disrupts-ilhan-omar-event-minnesota-sprays-her-with-liquid-2026-01-28/
United States Capitol Police. (2026-01-27). USCP Threat Assessment Cases for 2025. https://www.uscp.gov/media-center/press-releases/uscp-threat-assessment-cases-2025
Reuters. (2025-11-20). Trump says ‘seditious’ Democrats … “punishable by DEATH!”. https://www.reuters.com/world/us/trump-says-democrats-who-told-us-military-refuse-illegal-orders-deserve-death-2025-11-20/

Legal and institutional levers
Congress.gov. (2025-01-23). H.J.Res.29 (text and status). https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-joint-resolution/29
The White House. (2025-01-20). Restoring Accountability to Policy-Influencing Positions within the Federal Workforce. https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/01/restoring-accountability-to-policy-influencing-positions-within-the-federal-workforce/
U.S. Congress, Congressional Research Service. (n.d.). The National Emergencies Act (50 U.S.C. §§1601–1651). https://www.congress.gov/crs_external_products/RL/HTML/98-505.web.html
Brennan Center for Justice. (2022-04-21). The Insurrection Act, Explained. https://www.brennancenter.org/our-work/research-reports/insurrection-act-explained

Disinformation and epistemic risk
RAND Corporation. (2016-07-11). The Russian “Firehose of Falsehood” Propaganda Model. https://www.rand.org/pubs/perspectives/PE198.html
NATO. (2025-02-03). NATO’s approach to counter information threats. https://www.nato.int/en/what-we-do/wider-activities/natos-approach-to-counter-information-threats
U.S. Senate Select Committee on Intelligence. (2019-10-08). Press release on Russia’s use of social media. https://www.intelligence.senate.gov/2019/10/08/press-senate-intel-committee-releases-bipartisan-report-russia-e2-80-99s-use-social-media/

Recent democratic context benchmark
Freedom House. (2025). United States: Freedom in the World 2025 Country Report (Score 84/100). https://freedomhouse.org/country/united-states/freedom-world/2025